Posts
The
world moves away from the precipice of war while Trump’s armada is
in place and the Chinese are prepared for any eventuality.
.
North
Korea has tried, but allegedly failed, to conduct a new missile
launch, according to South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff and US
Pacific Command. The alleged botched launch comes amid heightened
tensions on the Korean Peninsula and a day after Pyongyang showcased
its new sea based and intercontinental missiles.
“The
communist state attempted to launch an unidentified missile from the
port city of Sinpo on its east coast in the morning and the launch is
presumed to have failed,” the South Korean military said, according
to Yonhap news.
The
attempted missile launch has also been detected by the US military,
which said it “blew up almost immediately” after the launch at
9:21pm GMT.
“US
Pacific Command detected and tracked what we assess was a North
Korean missile launch at 11:21 a.m. Hawaii time April 15. The launch
of the ballistic missile occurred near Sinpo," US Pacific
Command spokesman Commander David Benham said. “The missile blew up
almost immediately. The type of missile is still being assessed.”
While
the assessment is still ongoing, two US officials told Reuters
there’s a “high degree of confidence” the projectile was a
land-based but not an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Meanwhile,
Seoul officials told Yonhap that the failed missile launched on
Sunday resembled the type of a projectile the North fired earlier
this month. On April 5, Pyongyang triggered what is believed to be a
KN-15 medium-range ballistic missile. Also fired from the Sinpo area,
it flew some 60 kilometers before falling into the Sea of Japan.
Reports
of the failed launch came just hours before US Vice-President Mike
Pence’s scheduled arrival in South Korea; to begin his Asian tour
offering security reassurances to its allies in the region.
Pence
has already been briefed on the latest developments while en route to
the Peninsula, White House aides told reporters on board the plane.
The vice president then discussed the missile launch with Donald
Trump.
Defense
Secretary Jim Mattis said in a statement that Trump and his military
team are aware of North Korea's missile launch. The US president has
yet to comment on the matter.
On
Saturday, as North Korea marked the 105th birth anniversary of its
founding leader Kim Il-sung with a military parade in Pyongyang, the
North for the first time publicly showcased its submarine-launched
ballistic missiles (SLBMs), as well as what appears to be a new type
of ICBM.
"It's
presumed to be a new ICBM. It seems longer than the existing KN-08 or
KN-14 ICBMs," a South Korean military official told Yonhap,
after the intercontinental ballistic missiles along with the
Pukkuksong-2 SLBMs were paraded in front of the country's leader, Kim
Jong-un.
Choe
Ryong Hae – a close aide to Kim Jung-un, during his address to the
soldiers – warned against any US provocations on the Peninsula,
after US President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to “take care”
of the North Korean issue over the past weeks.
“If
the United States wages reckless provocation against us, our
revolutionary power will instantly counter with annihilating strike,
and we will respond to full-out war with full-out war and to nuclear
war with our style of nuclear strike warfare,” Choe said.
Tensions
on the Korean Peninsula has reached worrying heights amid concerns,
fueled by media reports, that Pyongyang might be preparing new
nuclear and ballistic missile tests – and that the US might decide
to act unilaterally and conduct a pre-emptive or retaliatory strikes,
just as it did against Syria on April 7.
Pyongyang
has urged Washington to stop its “military hysteria” and come to
its “senses” – or otherwise face a merciless response in case
of “provocations” against North Korea. Washington sent the USS
Carl Vinson aircraft carrier group and other military hardware to the
region in an apparent show of force and in preparation for “any
possible scenarios.”
Trump,
however, has also been engaging with China, seeking its help to solve
the North Korean nuclear issue peacefully. China’s foreign
minister, Wang Yi, warned that confrontation between the US and North
Korea had escalated to such a point that “a military conflict may
start at any moment.”
North
Korean Missile "Blows Up" During Launch; President Trump
Aware, Has "No Further Comment
15
April 2017
The
initial official reactions to the
failed missile launch are beginning to hit the wires:
U.S.
Pacific Command on North Korea missile launch:
U.S.
Pacific Command detected and tracked what we assess was a North
Korean missile launch at 11:21 a.m. Hawaii time April 15.
The launch of the ballistic missile occurred near Sinpo.
The
missile blew up almost immediately.
The type of missile is still being assessed.
U.S.
Pacific Command is fully committed to working closely with our allies
in the Republic of Korea and in Japan to maintain security.
Additionally,
Secretary of Defense Mattis says President
Trump is aware of the situation and has "no further comment”
on failed North Korean missile test.
The
big question is whether Trump will retaliate while VP Pence is in
South Korea.
*
* *
As
we detailed earlier, after Saturday came and went without any
provocation out of North Korea on its national holiday, many asked if
Kim Jong-Un had finally learned his lesson.Well, according to South
Korean news agency, not only did Kim not learn any lesson - or heed
Trump's warning that a nuclear test or missile launch would be
grounds for a US military strike - but Kim was not even successful in
properly defying the US as according to the Joint Chiefs of the South
Korean army, North Korea fired an unidentified missile but the
test failed.
The incident occurred a day after Kim Jong Un oversaw an
elaborate military parade in the center of Pyongyang as the world
watched for any provocations that risk sparking a conflict with the
U.S.
According to a US official quoted by CBS, the launched missile was not an intercontinental ballistic missile, which North Korea has claimed to possess but has never successfully tested. It’s unclear why the missile failed.
The
missile "blew
up almost immediately"
on its test
launch on Sunday,
the U.S. Pacific Command said, hours before U.S. Vice President Mike
Pence was due in the South for talks on the North's increasingly
defiant arms program.
As
Yonhap
further reports,
North Korea's attempted missile launch on Sunday ended in failure,
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
“The
North attempted to launch an unidentified missile from near the Sinpo
region this morning but it is suspected to have failed,” the
South’s Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement
The
missile launch attempt came amid rising tensions with the United
States that is sending an aircraft-carrier strike group to waters off
the Korean Peninsula to deter potential North Korean provocations
such as a nuclear test.
As
VoA
reports,
there is still no information on the type of missile the DPRK tried
to launch from Sinpo, where North Korea has a submarine base. What we
do know, however, is that the time of the missile launch was at 06:20
am Korean time, and as Reuters also adds, the missile launched
earlier this month flew about 60 km (40 miles) but what U.S.
officials said appeared to be a liquid-fueled, extended-range Scud
missile only traveled a fraction of its range before spinning out of
control.
“It
appears today’s launch was already scheduled for re-launching after
the earlier test-firing” Kim Dong-yub, a military expert at
Kyungnam University's Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Seoul.
“This
launch can possibly be a test for a new type of missile or an
upgrade,” Kim added. The North has said it has developed and would
launch a missile that can strike the mainland United States but
officials and experts believe it is some time away from mastering all
the necessary technology.
Tension
had escalated sharply in the region amid concerns that the North may
conduct a sixth nuclear test or a ballistic missile test launch
around the April 15 anniversary it calls the "Day of the Sun."
That
said, in light of the recent
NYT report that
the US has
been able to sabotage and remotely control North Korean launches for
years courtesy of cyberattacks,
one does wonder if the US did not play at least a minor role in this
attempted, but failed, launch.
Three
years ago, President Barack Obama ordered Pentagon officials to step
up their cyber and electronic strikes against North Korea’s missile
program in hopes of sabotaging test launches in their opening
seconds.
Soon
a large number of the North’s military rockets began to explode,
veer off course, disintegrate in midair and plunge into the sea.
Advocates
of such efforts say they believe that targeted attacks have given
American antimissile defenses a new edge and delayed by several years
the day when North Korea will be able to threaten American cities
with nuclear weapons launched atop intercontinental ballistic
missiles.
Sabotage
or not, at this moment Vice President Mike Pence is en route to South
Korea on Saturday night for meetings with officials amid increased
tensions in the region over Pyongyang's nuclear program and missile
tests.
As
we await more information, the immediate question is whether the mere
intent to test the US' resolve, even if such an attempt was
ultimately a failure will be sufficient for the US to commence
bombing Pyongyang. Recall that two days ago, NBC reported that the US
is prepared to launch preemptive strikes
on North Korea in case Kim Jong-Un was planning on conducting a
nuclear test. One can probably extrapolate the same logic to
ballistic misisle launches, especially now that North Korea revealed
a new, far
bigger ICBM during the
Saturday parade.
We
expect the answer whether the US will strike North Korea to be
revealed within the next few hours.
A
Red Line at the 38h Parallel
A
Range of Options
Action
against North Korea could take many shapes or forms, from a limited
strike to a large-scale military offensive targeting all of North
Korea's military assets.
On
the lowest end of the scale, the United States could launch a strike
to punish North Korea for continuing to develop its nuclear and
missile arsenal and to deter it from pursuing nuclear weapons in the
future. A punitive strike may be limited to a single base or facility
in the country, with the threat of further action down the line if
Pyongyang doesn't alter its behavior. Though this kind of attack
offers the best way to keep the situation from escalating, it would
by no means ensure that North Korea heeds the United States' warning
and eases up on its nuclear and missile development. Nor does it
eliminate the risk that Pyongyang may respond to the strike in kind.
Alternatively,
the United States could elect to launch a more comprehensive punitive
or preventive strike in an attempt to physically interrupt
the nuclear and missile programs' maturation. The
strikes would still be limited, focusing only on nuclear and missile
infrastructure to signal that the United States is not trying to
orchestrate a change in the country's leadership. This kind of
operation, such as a strike on a single target, would encourage North
Korea to curb its response so as not to provoke further attacks —
though a full-scale retaliation could not be ruled out.
If
Washington judges that Pyongyang is likely to launch a counterattack
regardless, it may decide a comprehensive campaign to degrade or
eliminate North Korea's retaliatory capacity would be most prudent.
This scenario would best position the United States and its allies
against a North Korean response, but it would entail significant
risks, virtually guaranteeing full-blown war on the Korean Peninsula.
Consequently, a campaign of this magnitude would require buy-in from
regional actors — something that has yet to manifest — and a
buildup of military assets far greater than what the United States
has deployed in the region so far. A more limited strike, be it a
focused punitive strike or a larger one targeting nuclear and missile
infrastructure, is more likely at this point. In the meantime, the
Pentagon has rerouted several carrier strike groups to the waters
surrounding the Korean Peninsula.
Weighing
the Risk
Such
an operation could involve cruise
missiles as well as fixed-wing aircraft
conducting strikes against various facilities across North Korea.
Prime targets include the nuclear reactor or uranium enrichment
facility at Yongbyon, as well as North Korean nuclear scientists.
Should the United States plan more extensive strikes aimed at
disabling all elements of the North Korean nuclear program, it may
also deploy special operations forces to go after underground
facilities that airstrikes couldn't easily or reliably destroy. But
the broader the target set, the greater the risk of retaliation.
North Korea has a hefty
arsenal of short- and medium-range missiles
that it could launch at nearby targets, including U.S. military
facilities elsewhere in the region. Pyongyang's conventional
artillery, moreover, could also do significant damage to northern
areas of South Korea, reaching as far as the country's capital. U.S.
military planners would likely view this kind of escalation as an
unacceptable risk.
The
United States will base its decision about whether and how to strike
North Korea in large part on the kind of reaction
it anticipates from Pyongyang.
North Korea has many reasons to mount a credible retaliation to any
action taken against it, not only to maintain the appearance of a
powerful actor on the global stage but also to ensure domestic
stability. A weak response from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's
administration could undermine its legitimacy among the country's
public or perhaps prompt a palace coup. At the same time, however,
Pyongyang understands that a significant retaliation would meet with
a commensurate response, which could cripple North Korea's military
capabilities.
If
the United States determines the country is unlikely to take that
kind of chance, it will have little else standing in the way of a
military strike. Short of that scenario, however, Washington may
still be willing to assume the risks of a limited retaliation. The
United States could consider the launch of a small number of missiles
that might be intercepted, for example, or incursions by North Korean
special operations forces into South Korean territory to be
acceptable consequences. Even low-level naval skirmishes may not be
considered too great a repercussion. Still, anticipating the scale of
North Korea's response is a daunting and treacherous gamble.
Then
there's China's response to consider. Until now, Beijing has stressed
diplomatic solutions to ease the rising tension, all the while
warning against the chain reaction that military action against
Pyongyang could set off. Beijing has consistently made clear that its
red line on the issue is war or instability on the Korean Peninsula;
China wants to make sure that it has a pliable buffer state along its
northeastern border.
In
the event of a military strike against North Korea, China could
intervene, either to support the North Korean government or to
facilitate a power transition without jeopardizing order in the
country. Its options for intervention range from military backing for
Pyongyang to support for a U.S.-led military campaign to a
decapitation strike. But whatever path it chooses, it will stay
focused on ensuring
the North Korean state's continuity
and preventing any scenario that could lead the Korean Peninsula to
unify under a competing power.
The
United States would doubtless risk a response in kind from China
should it launch a military strike without consulting Beijing. And if
Washington were to launch a full-scale campaign against North Korea,
or if a limited attack spirals into a war, the likelihood of a
Chinese military intervention to secure its interests on the Korean
Peninsula will climb. Along with its desire to keep a buffer between
its territory and U.S. forces in South Korea, China is worried about
the threat of spillover from a potential conflict in North Korea.
What
to Watch Out For
The
window has not closed on a diplomatic solution to the problem.
Pyongyang may decide to postpone its nuclear test, and the United
States, in turn, could delay military action in favor of tougher
sanctions. Still, given the high stakes at play, Stratfor will be
watching closely for early warnings of impending military action.
Defensive
Preparations Near the North-South Border
South
Korea is always on alert during its northern neighbor's test cycles.
And because it is a prime target for North Korea's prospective
retaliatory action, the country is anxious about the possibility of a
military strike — all the more so as it deals with prolonged
political instability at home. South Korea's acting president has
ordered his military to intensify preparations. But reports have yet
to surface that the country is bolstering security at the border.
A
Shutdown at China's Border
Overall,
we are on the lookout for any sign that China is changing its
military posture or taking steps to evacuate foreigners from North
Korea. Reports suggest that China is mobilizing troops along the
border, though we have not been able to verify these claims.
Nonetheless, Air China — one of two airlines with service to North
Korea — has announced that it is canceling flights to the country
starting April 17. As one of the only countries that operate flights
to North Korea, China may be trying to prove that it is willing to
ramp up its economic pressure on Pyongyang. Otherwise, it may have
canceled the flights simply because of low passenger turnout. The
move could also be a precautionary measure, though, and we're
watching to see whether it indicates that China is preparing for a
military crisis.
Changes
in Travel Plans or Diplomatic Activity
Changes
to the itinerary of U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's impending
10-day tour of the Asia-Pacific region would
be a red flag. He is expected to celebrate Easter with U.S. forces in
South Korea. A sudden uptick in diplomatic activity between the
United States and China, likewise, could signal imminent action in
North Korea.The
initial official reactions
to the failed missile launch are beginning to hit the wires:
U.S.
Pacific Command on North Korea missile launch:
U.S.
Pacific Command detected and tracked what we assess was a North
Korean missile launch at 11:21 a.m. Hawaii time April 15.
The launch of the ballistic missile occurred near Sinpo.
The
missile blew up almost immediately.
The type of missile is still being assessed.
U.S.
Pacific Command is fully committed to working closely with our allies
in the Republic of Korea and in Japan to maintain security.
Additionally,
Secretary of Defense Mattis says President
Trump is aware of the situation and has "no further comment”
on failed North Korean missile test.
The
big question is whether Trump will retaliate while VP Pence is in
South Korea.
*
* *
As
we detailed earlier, after Saturday came and went without any
provocation out of North Korea on its national holiday, many asked if
Kim Jong-Un had finally learned his lesson.Well, according to South
Korean news agency, not only did Kim not learn any lesson - or heed
Trump's warning that a nuclear test or missile launch would be
grounds for a US military strike - but Kim was not even successful in
properly defying the US as according to the Joint Chiefs of the South
Korean army, North Korea fired an unidentified missile but the
test failed. The incident occurred a day after Kim Jong Un oversaw an
elaborate military parade in the center of Pyongyang as the world
watched for any provocations that risk sparking a conflict with the
U.S.
According to a US official quoted by CBS, the launched missile was not an intercontinental ballistic missile, which North Korea has claimed to possess but has never successfully tested. It’s unclear why the missile failed.
The
missile "blew
up almost immediately"
on its test
launch on Sunday,
the U.S. Pacific Command said, hours before U.S. Vice President Mike
Pence was due in the South for talks on the North's increasingly
defiant arms program.
As
Yonhap
further reports,
North Korea's attempted missile launch on Sunday ended in failure,
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
“The
North attempted to launch an unidentified missile from near the Sinpo
region this morning but it is suspected to have failed,” the
South’s Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement
The
missile launch attempt came amid rising tensions with the United
States that is sending an aircraft-carrier strike group to waters off
the Korean Peninsula to deter potential North Korean provocations
such as a nuclear test.
As
VoA
reports,
there is still no information on the type of missile the DPRK tried
to launch from Sinpo, where North Korea has a submarine base. What we
do know, however, is that the time of the missile launch was at 06:20
am Korean time, and as Reuters also adds, the missile launched
earlier this month flew about 60 km (40 miles) but what U.S.
officials said appeared to be a liquid-fueled, extended-range Scud
missile only traveled a fraction of its range before spinning out of
control.
“It
appears today’s launch was already scheduled for re-launching after
the earlier test-firing” Kim Dong-yub, a military expert at
Kyungnam University's Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Seoul.
“This
launch can possibly be a test for a new type of missile or an
upgrade,” Kim added. The North has said it has developed and would
launch a missile that can strike the mainland United States but
officials and experts believe it is some time away from mastering all
the necessary technology.
Tension
had escalated sharply in the region amid concerns that the North may
conduct a sixth nuclear test or a ballistic missile test launch
around the April 15 anniversary it calls the "Day of the Sun."
That
said, in light of the recent
NYT report that
the US has
been able to sabotage and remotely control North Korean launches for
years courtesy of cyberattacks,
one does wonder if the US did not play at least a minor role in this
attempted, but failed, launch.
Three
years ago, President Barack Obama ordered Pentagon officials to step
up their cyber and electronic strikes against North Korea’s missile
program in hopes of sabotaging test launches in their opening
seconds.
Soon
a large number of the North’s military rockets began to explode,
veer off course, disintegrate in midair and plunge into the sea.
Advocates
of such efforts say they believe that targeted attacks have given
American antimissile defenses a new edge and delayed by several years
the day when North Korea will be able to threaten American cities
with nuclear weapons launched atop intercontinental ballistic
missiles.
Sabotage
or not, at this moment Vice President Mike Pence is en route to South
Korea on Saturday night for meetings with officials amid increased
tensions in the region over Pyongyang's nuclear program and missile
tests.
As
we await more information, the immediate question is whether the mere
intent to test the US' resolve, even if such an attempt was
ultimately a failure will be sufficient for the US to commence
bombing Pyongyang. Recall that two days ago, NBC reported that the US
is prepared to launch preemptive strikes
on North Korea in case Kim Jong-Un was planning on conducting a
nuclear test. One can probably extrapolate the same logic to
ballistic misisle launches, especially now that North Korea revealed
a new, far
bigger ICBM during the
Saturday parade.
We
expect the answer whether the US will strike North Korea to be
revealed within the next few hours.
A
Red Line at the 38h Parallel
A
Range of Options
Action
against North Korea could take many shapes or forms, from a limited
strike to a large-scale military offensive targeting all of North
Korea's military assets.
On
the lowest end of the scale, the United States could launch a strike
to punish North Korea for continuing to develop its nuclear and
missile arsenal and to deter it from pursuing nuclear weapons in the
future. A punitive strike may be limited to a single base or facility
in the country, with the threat of further action down the line if
Pyongyang doesn't alter its behavior. Though this kind of attack
offers the best way to keep the situation from escalating, it would
by no means ensure that North Korea heeds the United States' warning
and eases up on its nuclear and missile development. Nor does it
eliminate the risk that Pyongyang may respond to the strike in kind.
Alternatively,
the United States could elect to launch a more comprehensive punitive
or preventive strike in an attempt to physically interrupt
the nuclear and missile programs' maturation. The
strikes would still be limited, focusing only on nuclear and missile
infrastructure to signal that the United States is not trying to
orchestrate a change in the country's leadership. This kind of
operation, such as a strike on a single target, would encourage North
Korea to curb its response so as not to provoke further attacks —
though a full-scale retaliation could not be ruled out.
If
Washington judges that Pyongyang is likely to launch a counterattack
regardless, it may decide a comprehensive campaign to degrade or
eliminate North Korea's retaliatory capacity would be most prudent.
This scenario would best position the United States and its allies
against a North Korean response, but it would entail significant
risks, virtually guaranteeing full-blown war on the Korean Peninsula.
Consequently, a campaign of this magnitude would require buy-in from
regional actors — something that has yet to manifest — and a
buildup of military assets far greater than what the United States
has deployed in the region so far. A more limited strike, be it a
focused punitive strike or a larger one targeting nuclear and missile
infrastructure, is more likely at this point. In the meantime, the
Pentagon has rerouted several carrier strike groups to the waters
surrounding the Korean Peninsula.
Weighing
the Riss
Such
an operation could involve cruise
missiles as well as fixed-wing aircraft
conducting strikes against various facilities across North Korea.
Prime targets include the nuclear reactor or uranium enrichment
facility at Yongbyon, as well as North Korean nuclear scientists.
Should the United States plan more extensive strikes aimed at
disabling all elements of the North Korean nuclear program, it may
also deploy special operations forces to go after underground
facilities that airstrikes couldn't easily or reliably destroy. But
the broader the target set, the greater the risk of retaliation.
North Korea has a hefty
arsenal of short- and medium-range missiles
that it could launch at nearby targets, including U.S. military
facilities elsewhere in the region. Pyongyang's conventional
artillery, moreover, could also do significant damage to northern
areas of South Korea, reaching as far as the country's capital. U.S.
military planners would likely view this kind of escalation as an
unacceptable risk.
The
United States will base its decision about whether and how to strike
North Korea in large part on the kind of reaction
it anticipates from Pyongyang.
North Korea has many reasons to mount a credible retaliation to any
action taken against it, not only to maintain the appearance of a
powerful actor on the global stage but also to ensure domestic
stability. A weak response from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's
administration could undermine its legitimacy among the country's
public or perhaps prompt a palace coup. At the same time, however,
Pyongyang understands that a significant retaliation would meet with
a commensurate response, which could cripple North Korea's military
capabilities.
If
the United States determines the country is unlikely to take that
kind of chance, it will have little else standing in the way of a
military strike. Short of that scenario, however, Washington may
still be willing to assume the risks of a limited retaliation. The
United States could consider the launch of a small number of missiles
that might be intercepted, for example, or incursions by North Korean
special operations forces into South Korean territory to be
acceptable consequences. Even low-level naval skirmishes may not be
considered too great a repercussion. Still, anticipating the scale of
North Korea's response is a daunting and treacherous gamble.
Then
there's China's response to consider. Until now, Beijing has stressed
diplomatic solutions to ease the rising tension, all the while
warning against the chain reaction that military action against
Pyongyang could set off. Beijing has consistently made clear that its
red line on the issue is war or instability on the Korean Peninsula;
China wants to make sure that it has a pliable buffer state along its
northeastern border.
In
the event of a military strike against North Korea, China could
intervene, either to support the North Korean government or to
facilitate a power transition without jeopardizing order in the
country. Its options for intervention range from military backing for
Pyongyang to support for a U.S.-led military campaign to a
decapitation strike. But whatever path it chooses, it will stay
focused on ensuring
the North Korean state's continuity
and preventing any scenario that could lead the Korean Peninsula to
unify under a competing power.
The
United States would doubtless risk a response in kind from China
should it launch a military strike without consulting Beijing. And if
Washington were to launch a full-scale campaign against North Korea,
or if a limited attack spirals into a war, the likelihood of a
Chinese military intervention to secure its interests on the Korean
Peninsula will climb. Along with its desire to keep a buffer between
its territory and U.S. forces in South Korea, China is worried about
the threat of spillover from a potential conflict in North Korea.
What
to Watch Out For
The
window has not closed on a diplomatic solution to the problem.
Pyongyang may decide to postpone its nuclear test, and the United
States, in turn, could delay military action in favor of tougher
sanctions. Still, given the high stakes at play, Stratfor will be
watching closely for early warnings of impending military action.
Defensive
Preparations Near the North-South Border
South
Korea is always on alert during its northern neighbor's test cycles.
And because it is a prime target for North Korea's prospective
retaliatory action, the country is anxious about the possibility of a
military strike — all the more so as it deals with prolonged
political instability at home. South Korea's acting president has
ordered his military to intensify preparations. But reports have yet
to surface that the country is bolstering security at the border.
A
Shutdown at China's Border
Overall,
we are on the lookout for any sign that China is changing its
military posture or taking steps to evacuate foreigners from North
Korea. Reports suggest that China is mobilizing troops along the
border, though we have not been able to verify these claims.
Nonetheless, Air China — one of two airlines with service to North
Korea — has announced that it is canceling flights to the country
starting April 17. As one of the only countries that operate flights
to North Korea, China may be trying to prove that it is willing to
ramp up its economic pressure on Pyongyang. Otherwise, it may have
canceled the flights simply because of low passenger turnout. The
move could also be a precautionary measure, though, and we're
watching to see whether it indicates that China is preparing for a
military crisis.
Changes
in Travel Plans or Diplomatic Activity
Changes
to the itinerary of U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's impending
10-day tour of the Asia-Pacific region would
be a red flag. He is expected to celebrate Easter with U.S. forces in
South Korea. A sudden uptick in diplomatic activity between the
United States and China, likewise, could signal imminent action in
North Korea.
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